Patrik Antonius Takes On The WSOP Champ (Analysis)

Prime Stakes Poker has returned. The display’s ninth season has featured probably the most greatest names in poker, together with Phil Ivey, Doyle Brunson, Daniel Negreanu, Tom Dwan, and plenty of others.

One of the crucial fascinating fingers took place within the first episode when poker legend Patrik Antonius squared off in opposition to 2021 WSOP Major Tournament Champion Koray Aldemir in an $80,800 pot.

The stakes are $200/$400 with a $400 large blind ante, and the efficient stack length is $95,000.

With out to any extent further ado, let’s run throughout the hand and spoil down what took place.

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Patrik Antonius Takes on the WSOP Champ (Analysis)

Preflop

Koray raises to $1,000 with AJ from the Lojack. Patrik 3-bets to $4,000 with OkQ from the Small Blind. Koray calls.

Preflop Research

Koray will have to be opening with (kind of) the highest 18% of fingers from the Lojack, and A J♣ is undoubtedly a part of that vary. His lift length of round 2.5 large blinds (bb) is acceptable.

Confronted with the lift, Patrik’s 3-bet could also be proper each size-wise and hand selection-wise with this kind of robust preflop keeping. He’s having a look to 3-bet with a merged range consisting of about 6% of the most powerful preflop fingers. King-Queen suited is robust sufficient to take action.

Towards a 4x 3-bet, Koray will have to shield with round kind of 50% of the hole vary. Ace-Jack offsuit will have to be folded each time right here since it’s ceaselessly ruled and he’ll have many more potent fingers to proceed with.

Flop

The flop comes J♠ T 3♠. The pot is $8,800.

Patrik c-bets $6,000 together with his open-ended immediately draw. Koray calls together with his most sensible pair most sensible kicker.

Flop Research

The Small Blind’s vary is far more potent at the Jack-high forums on this positional matchup, which means that extremely competitive methods are known as for.

In this explicit flop, Patrik has a big range advantage with round 60% fairness to Koray’s 40%. That is because of a couple of causes:

  • Patrik has Pocket Aces and Kings in his vary, which Koray doesn’t have
  • Patrik has extra Pocket Queens than Koray (as a result of Koray will have to be 4-betting a few of them)
  • Even Patrik’s minority of neglected fingers are robust attracts (excessive fairness)

For those causes, mixed with the truth that the board is attached, the proper technique for Patrik is to c-bet with his entire range for a medium-to-large length (50-80% of the pot). This wager will drive Koray to fold numerous his vary whilst additionally reducing the expected value (EV) of the calling fingers (extra so than if Patrik used a smaller length).

Koray will have to completely name together with his most sensible pair most sensible kicker at this level. Elevating for cost could be too skinny.

Flip

The flip comes the 9, making the board J♠ T 3♠ 9. The pot is $20,800.

Patrik exams together with his immediately. Koray exams again.

(Take into account, Patrik and Koray have Ok♣ Q♣ and A J♣, respectively.)

Flip Research

Patrik were given his dream card, for his hand this is.

The 9 is in truth a horrible card for his entire vary as it provides Koray extra nutted fingers than it provides him. It additionally advantages Koray’s vary in relative phrases (the choice of nutted combinations divided through the overall combinations in Koray’s vary).

On most sensible of that, they’re very deep, having an SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) of four. For those causes, Patrik makes the high-level resolution to test. What an ideal play!

Koray additionally makes an ideal resolution to test again. His hand has implied odds at the river — e.g. will have to he hit two pair on an Ace, Patrik will most probably installed no less than yet one more wager with the numerous Ace-King combinations in his vary.

Moreover, whilst most sensible pair continues to be a robust hand, it has contracted up moderately a bit of in this board runout. This additional incentivizes Koray to test.

River

The river comes the A, finishing the J♠ T 3♠ 9 Aboard. The pot is $20,800.

Patrik bets $30,000 and Koray calls. Patrik scoops the $80,800 pot.

River Research

The Ace is the most productive card within the deck for Patrik’s vary because it improves all of his neglected fingers to most sensible pair. It additionally improves AA, AJ-suited, and AT-suited to most sensible set and most sensible 2 pair, respectively.

That being stated, the ones most sensible pairs can’t value-bet, even for a small length, as a result of Koray’s vary could also be very robust.

The one just right choice right here for Patrik is to press the motion to the utmost with an overbet, perhaps even an all-in. His cost fingers will have to be KQ, JJ, TT, and 99 whilst his bluffs will have to be KJ-suited and QJ-suited.

Confronted with the overbet, Koray will have to in truth be folding right here together with his Ace-Jack each from a theoretical point of view and in addition a sensible one. Patrik is a smart participant, however this can be very onerous to search out the ones KJ-suited and QJ-suited bluffs in follow. And although Patrik does play the ones fingers this manner, Koray would slightly be getting just right sufficient pot odds to name.

Ultimate Ideas

I discovered Patrik’s decision-making to be truly spectacular for the reason that the sport has developed a just right quantity since he first emerged onto the tremendous excessive stakes scene. It’s transparent to me that he has been running on his recreation in the previous couple of years.

That’s concerned with this research guys! I am hoping you discovered it insightful and that you simply discovered one thing new. When you have any fingers that you simply’d like me to investigate let me know within the remark segment down beneath!

Right here’s what I like to recommend studying subsequent: How to Exploit Loose Poker Players Preflop.

Until’ subsequent time, just right good fortune, grinders!

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Patrik Antonius Takes on the WSOP Champ (Analysis)

 

Author: Bradley Watson